Lebanon holds its breath earlier than a speech by Hezbollah chief

The chief of Hezbollah is giving his first speech this Friday, November 3, for the reason that begin of the warfare between Palestinian Hamas and Israel, which ought to decide whether or not his highly effective formation will interact Lebanon head-on within the battle.

Hezbollah introduced for the reason that unprecedented assault carried out on October 7 by Hamas in opposition to Israel its solidarity with its Palestinian ally and claims common fireplace in opposition to Israeli navy positions in border areas from southern Lebanon.

Cross-border clashes remained typically restricted, each geographically and in the kind of aims pursued.

However on Thursday, Hezbollah intensified its operations, saying that it had attacked concurrently “19 navy positions and websites” Israelis, resulting in retaliatory strikes by the Israeli military which left 4 useless within the ranks of Hezbollah, in accordance with the Shiite motion.

Since October 7, violence has left 70 useless in Lebanon, together with 52 Hezbollah fighters, in accordance with an AFP depend, and 9 killed on the Israeli facet in accordance with the authorities.

A brand new warfare could be “devastating”

Hassan Nasrallah’s speech, scheduled for 1 p.m. GMT on the event of a ceremony organized within the southern suburbs of Beirut, stronghold of Hezbollah, to honor the “martyrs” of the highly effective pro-Iranian formation who’ve fallen since October 7, is awaited with apprehension in Lebanon but in addition within the area.

A harmful warfare already pitted Hezbollah in opposition to Israel in 2006. It devastated infrastructure and roads and left greater than 1,200 useless on the Lebanese facet, largely civilians. On the Israeli facet, 160 folks have been killed, primarily troopers.

A brand new warfare could be “devastating” for Lebanon, warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 22.

Iran, by way of its Minister of International Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, warned that “the area is sort of a powder keg” and will turn out to be “uncontrollable” if Israel doesn’t finish its offensive in Gaza.

“Ending blow”

Because the 2006 warfare, Hezbollah has strengthened its important navy arsenal, which notably consists of high-precision missiles, however has for the second kept away from utilizing them.

“All sides rigorously measures its actions and reactions, so as to keep away from a scenario that would spiral uncontrolled and unfold to the complete area”estimates analyst Michael Younger, of the Carnegie Heart for the Center East.

Whereas ready for Hassan Nasrallah’s speech, the Lebanese are holding their breath and opinions are divided.

“We’re impatiently awaiting the speech (…) and we hope that it proclaims warfare in opposition to the Israeli enemy and the Western nations that assist it”says Ahed Madi, 43, a resident of a southern border village.

A brand new warfare in opposition to Israel “would represent the ultimate blow for Lebanon” within the midst of an financial collapse, fears Rabih Awad, 41 years previous.

“I refuse the warfare of extermination of the Palestinians in Gaza, however the choice to go to warfare should be the accountability of the Lebanese state, and never of a celebration or a militia”he stated.

” Purple line “

In keeping with analysts, the choice to go to warfare is within the arms of Iran, which has already despatched by way of its allies inside “the axis of resistance” messages to Israel and the USA.

Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed accountability for drone and ballistic missile assaults in opposition to Israel, whereas pro-Iranian teams have attacked American bases in Iraq and Syria.

However for Amal Saad, lecturer at Cardiff College and Hezbollah professional, this coaching “will not be subservient to Iran, it’s an ally of Iran” et “doesn’t want anybody’s permission to intervene”.

In keeping with her, two components may push Hassan Nasrallah to declare warfare.

If Israel “is making an attempt to decapitate Hamas and annihilate the motion within the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah won’t enable it”she explains.

“Furthermore, ethnic cleaning of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, their switch to (Egyptian) Sinai or elsewhere, is a crimson line for Hezbollah”she provides.

In a message addressed to Palestinian formations in Gaza revealed Wednesday by Hezbollah, its fighters declare to have “along with your finger on the set off (…) to assist the Al Aqsa Mosque and our oppressed brothers in Palestine”.